515 Millers Chapel Rd · Baileyton, TN 37745

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1930 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

Key facts

• New wood siding
• 0.76 acre lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• PRIVATE PEACEFUL SETTING
• 189 FEET OF ROAD FRONTAGE
• 12X20 UTILITY BUILDING
• NEW WOOD SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Wooded view; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Cooling present (other type)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1) with unspecified/miscellaneous features; Refrigerator included; Hardwood flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#364 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,479
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $17,329
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37745

• Home prices YoY: -6.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $234/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $257	+0% $229	+5% $201	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $189	+0% $229	+5% $270	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $255	base $229	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $99,000
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $110,000 Active
18. 2023-09-20
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2023-09-19
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

20. 2023-08-25
    historical Active Under Contract 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

21. 2023-08-11
    historical 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

22. 2023-07-31
    status Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

23. 2023-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

24. 2023-07-22
    status Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

25. 2023-06-26
    historical Active Under Contract 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

26. 2023-06-20
    listed $125,000 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Remodeled in 2023, this 2 bedroom 1 bath home sits on . 76 of an acre. The original hardwood floors have been beautifully refinished. This home is in a private setting and away from the hustle and bustle. There is 189 feet of road frontage so there is potential for more than one dwelling (must be confirmed by building inspector) Its a five minute drive to exit 36 off I-81 and a short drive to Kingsport, Johnson City, Greeneville, or Morristown. There is a utility room complete with a washer and dryer that convey. The heat source is a propane gas heater and wall heaters and there is a window air conditioner and fans for the summer months. There is all new plumbing with pex waterlines, and a new hot water heater. The refrigerator, stove, and microwave convey. A table has been added as counter space and it will remain with the home along with the chairs. There is a 12 X 20 Utility building with new wood siding. There is a new survey that was completed 10-14-2021.

27. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $36,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    This little house needs a lot of TLC, 2 bedroom 1 bath. Propane heat, window a/c, newer metal roof, vinyl siding, and utility water

28. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $36,000

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    This little house needs a lot of TLC, 2 bedroom 1 bath. Propane heat, window a/c, newer metal roof, vinyl siding, and utility water

29. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus $36,000
30. 2021-09-14
    listed $39,000
31. 1988-06-21
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $234 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $703 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 200.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$234
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$983
• − Management: −$983
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County
• NCES district ID: 4701470
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,517
• Composite: 21.3/100
• National rank: #8388
• State rank: #83 of 139 in TN

Livability — Baileyton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #23608

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 45,638 people
• Metro: Greeneville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 21,090
• Household income: $57,159
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,624 people
• By 2030: 68,114 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 66,167 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 63,038 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 55,274 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 45,527 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.6% · R 82.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+61.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.99%
• Current HPI: 295.4621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Greeneville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+560.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $99,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $110,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-08-25 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-08-11 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-07-31 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-07-25 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-07-22 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2023-06-26 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-06-20 Listed $125,000 TVRMLS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $36,000 LAAR
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $36,000 GSMAR
• 2021-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-14 Listed $39,000 LAAR
• 1988-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $234 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.