15750 Arroyo Dr #168

Moorpark, CA 93021

$229,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,011/mo
• Annual: $12,135/yr
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in CA, #2,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Moorpark Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #105 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Campus Canyon Elementary (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #539 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 549 students, 32% FRL); Mesa Verde Middle (math 41% / reading 64%, grade C+, #85 of 498 statewide, top 17%, 565 students, 31% FRL); Moorpark High (math 41% / reading 61%, grade D+, #319 of 1,170 statewide, top 28%, 1,849 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.3% in Moorpark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.