15750 Arroyo Dr #168 · Moorpark, CA 93021

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1978 $220/sqft · 7% below area Est $247k · 7% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

located in a very desirable park, Villa Del Arroyo M H Park. Home shows very cluttered however good potential. Huge private yard with large side yard. Tandon parking for up to 3 vehicles. Kitchen with built-in table , lots of cabinets, overhead lighting, formal dining room with built-in hutch with overhead light/fan. Living room with den, enclosed porch leads to outside. Two bedrooms & baths, oversized laundry room. Park has basketball & pickleball, tennis courts, pool/spa, clubhouse with kitchen, library, game room, etc. walking trails, community gardens. A+ Park.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Private yard
• Built-in table

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• SIDE YARD
• BUILT-IN TABLE
• OVERHEAD LIGHTING
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.3% in Moorpark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in CA, #2,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Moorpark Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #105 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Campus Canyon Elementary (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #539 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 549 students, 32% FRL); Mesa Verde Middle (math 41% / reading 64%, grade C+, #85 of 498 statewide, top 17%, 565 students, 31% FRL); Moorpark High (math 41% / reading 61%, grade D+, #319 of 1,170 statewide, top 28%, 1,849 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,500
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15750 Arroyo Dr #193	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	4mo	$195,000	$169	76
15750 Arroyo Dr #20	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	20mo	$280,000	$243	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $17,725
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $61,383
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93021

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,169	-5% $1,090	+0% $1,011	+5% $932	+10% $853
Rent	-10% $752	-5% $882	+0% $1,011	+5% $1,141	+10% $1,271
Rate	-1.0pp $1,127	-0.5pp $1,069	base $1,011	+0.5pp $952	+1.0pp $892

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15076 Varsity St Unit C Moorpark, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$3,368	$3.33	25d	1	0.65mi
14987 Campus Park Dr Unit D Moorpark, CA	3.0	2.5	1245	$3,600	$2.89	45d	1	0.76mi
6894 Auburn Cir Moorpark, CA	3.0	2.0	1241	$3,595	$2.90	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $229,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    historical Active Under Contract 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    located in a very desirable park, Villa Del Arroyo M H Park. Home shows very cluttered however good potential. Huge private yard with large side yard. Tandon parking for up to 3 vehicles. Kitchen with built-in table , lots of cabinets, overhead lighting, formal dining room with built-in hutch with overhead light/fan. Living room with den, enclosed porch leads to outside. Two bedrooms & baths, oversized laundry room. Park has basketball & pickleball, tennis courts, pool/spa, clubhouse with kitchen, library, game room, etc. walking trails, community gardens. A+ Park.

18. 2026-04-02
    price $229,000 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    located in a very desirable park, Villa Del Arroyo M H Park. Home shows very cluttered however good potential. Huge private yard with large side yard. Tandon parking for up to 3 vehicles. Kitchen with built-in table , lots of cabinets, overhead lighting, formal dining room with built-in hutch with overhead light/fan. Living room with den, enclosed porch leads to outside. Two bedrooms & baths, oversized laundry room. Park has basketball & pickleball, tennis courts, pool/spa, clubhouse with kitchen, library, game room, etc. walking trails, community gardens. A+ Park.

19. 2026-03-04
    listed $249,000 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    located in a very desirable park, Villa Del Arroyo M H Park. Home shows very cluttered however good potential. Huge private yard with large side yard. Tandon parking for up to 3 vehicles. Kitchen with built-in table , lots of cabinets, overhead lighting, formal dining room with built-in hutch with overhead light/fan. Living room with den, enclosed porch leads to outside. Two bedrooms & baths, oversized laundry room. Park has basketball & pickleball, tennis courts, pool/spa, clubhouse with kitchen, library, game room, etc. walking trails, community gardens. A+ Park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,152
• − Management: −$3,152
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $9,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $9,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorpark Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625690
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,989
• Composite: 47.83/100
• National rank: #2222
• State rank: #105 of 517 in CA

Livability — Moorpark

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorpark, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 37,746
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,746
• Household income: $147,636
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 624.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -499.76%
• Current HPI: 291.3981
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.12%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — CSMAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $229,000 CSMAR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $249,000 CSMAR