652 Sonja Ave

Ridgecrest, CA 93555

$299,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,995 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-186/mo
• Annual: $-2,227/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#243 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+, crime F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Las Flores Elementary (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 526 students, 38% FRL); James Monroe Middle (math 16% / reading 29%, grade F, #382 of 498 statewide, top 78%, 548 students, 49% FRL); Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Ridgecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.