652 Sonja Ave · Ridgecrest, CA 93555

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1972 10,454 sqft lot $150/sqft · 15% below area Est $353k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has great potential. Large 4/2 home in a desirable area of RIdgecrest. This home has RV parking and a built in pool. It needs some TLC to make you feel right at home. The home is freshly painted and newly remodeled kitchen w new appliances. The current owner left the carpet out of the rooms so you have time to pick your own color and seller will credit at escrow or have installed prior to close.

Key facts

• Built in pool
• Rv parking
• Freshly painted

Tags

• RV PARKING
• BUILT IN POOL
• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• FRESHLY PAINTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Ridgecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#243 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+, crime F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Las Flores Elementary (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 526 students, 38% FRL); James Monroe Middle (math 16% / reading 29%, grade F, #382 of 498 statewide, top 78%, 548 students, 49% FRL); Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,277 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,535
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -15.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 Sonja Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,995 (0%)	1mo	$309,200	$155	99
1013 Scott St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,971 (-1%)	2mo	$278,000	$141	78
731 Randall St	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,893 (-5%)	3mo	$195,000	$103	76
817 Paradise Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,972 (-1%)	0mo	$419,000	$212	73
964 Roosevelt St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,919 (-4%)	2mo	$338,000	$176	63
515 N Las Posas St	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,815 (-9%)	2mo	$275,000	$152	59
905 Cimarron Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,210 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$140	56
1208 Windy Lynn Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,107 (+6%)	0mo	$410,000	$195	53
529 W Joyner Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-12%)	1mo	$340,000	$194	51
438 W Ward Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,789 (-10%)	1mo	$295,000	$165	48
934 Roosevelt St	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-12%)	3mo	$305,000	$174	42
1113 Evelyn Ct. Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-14%)	0mo	$260,000	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,131
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,963
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93555

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,946/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $266,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-101	+0% $-186	+5% $-270	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-269	+0% $-186	+5% $-102	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-110	base $-186	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
818 Sherri St Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	2087	$2,400	$1.15	5d	1	0.09mi
1019 Peg St Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,800	$1.23	5d	1	0.24mi
1019 Scott St Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,400	$2.00	5d	1	0.29mi
401 Tepatitlan Ct Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	3.0	2062	$2,000	$0.97	5d	1	0.48mi
1127 N Mono Ct Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,900	$1.54	12d	1	0.53mi
1105 Rebecca Ave Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,400	$1.33	21d	1	0.56mi
932 Kinnett Ave Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,550	$1.25	5d	1	0.57mi
533 W Ward Ave Unit C Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,300	$1.00	21d	1	0.58mi
401 N Norma St Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	5d	1	0.58mi
228 Yellowstone Pl Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,100	$1.12	5d	1	0.61mi
212 Washington Way Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1785	$1,880	$1.05	5d	1	0.61mi
418 Mount Baldy Cir Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,950	$1.30	5d	1	0.63mi
428 W Ward Ave Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	5d	1	0.66mi
247 Peg St Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1876	$1,500	$0.80	5d	1	0.74mi
225 N Helena St Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,750	$1.15	5d	1	0.83mi
1128 Argus Ave Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1346	$11,800	$8.77	46d	1	0.89mi
604 W Perdew Ave Apt C Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,150	$0.83	46d	1	0.92mi
419 Jean Ave Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$1,585	$1.00	5d	1	0.94mi
740 W Church Ave Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	1.17mi
320 Vista St Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	46d	1	1.39mi
432 Thomas St Ridgecrest, CA	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,500	$1.31	5d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   This home has great potential. Large 4/2 home in a desirable area of RIdgecrest. This home has RV parking and a built in pool. It needs some TLC to make you feel right at home. The home is freshly painted and newly remodeled kitchen w new appliances. The current owner left the carpet out of the rooms so you have time to pick your own color and seller will credit at escrow or have installed prior to close.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $299,000 Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   This home has great potential. Large 4/2 home in a desirable area of RIdgecrest. This home has RV parking and a built in pool. It needs some TLC to make you feel right at home. The home is freshly painted and newly remodeled kitchen w new appliances. The current owner left the carpet out of the rooms so you have time to pick your own color and seller will credit at escrow or have installed prior to close.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,946
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $-406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ridgecrest

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #8014

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridgecrest, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 33,845
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,845
• Household income: $86,700
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.17%
• Current HPI: 380.5208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $299,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,946 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.