522 E 4th Ct

Panama City, FL 32401

$187,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1933 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,285/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $52,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Merriam Cherry Street Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 362 students, 72% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?