522 E 4th Ct · Panama City, FL 32401

$187,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1933 Good condition 6,970 sqft lot $205/sqft · 14% below area Est $217k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.4

Listing remarks

CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Charming Craftsman in The Cove Welcome to one of Panama City's most desirable neighborhoods. This beautiful, move-in ready Craftsman home features many original details that give it timeless character and warmth. Step outside to mature shade trees that keep the yard cool and inviting year-round. You're just a short walk to the revitalized downtown area and the Marina, where dining, shopping, and waterfront views await. Quiet street, rich history, and unbeatable location -- this is Cove living at its best.

Key facts

• Craftsman home
• Cove living
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN HOME
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• REVITALIZED DOWNTOWN AREA
• MARINA
• COVE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Merriam Cherry Street Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 362 students, 72% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,486 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,051
• List price: $187,000
• Delta: -13.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 E 4th Ct	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+14%)	3mo	$254,000	$244	69
911 Wilson Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-1%)	1mo	$242,500	$269	58
308 E 8th St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+10%)	2mo	$249,000	$249	56
908 Cone Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	988 (+8%)	2mo	$115,000	$116	55
436 Harrison Ave #11	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+21%)	1mo	$549,750	$500	53
848 E 12th Ct	1.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	834 (-9%)	0mo	$195,000	$234	42
614 Bay Ave	0.81mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+21%)	1mo	$165,000	$150	39
2021 E 7th Ct	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+25%)	1mo	$260,000	$229	35
1337 Lincoln Dr	1.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	736 (-19%)	1mo	$118,500	$161	34
825 E 11th Ct	0.99mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-16%)	2mo	$113,000	$147	34
609 Elm Ave	1.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	711 (-22%)	2mo	$175,000	$246	33
704 Cactus Ave	0.99mi	2/1.0 (-1)	729 (-20%)	3mo	$120,000	$165	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-45,896
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-69,101
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $159,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-126	+0% $-190	+5% $-255	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-245	+0% $-190	+5% $-135	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-143	base $-190	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
388 Massalina Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	62d	1	0.08mi
603 E 2nd St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	70d	1	0.57mi
316 Cherry St #24 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	860	$1,800	$2.09	62d	1	0.72mi
1114 Mc Kenzie Ave Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,850	$2.10	70d	1	0.94mi
606 E 13th St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	70d	1	1.06mi
725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	70d	1	1.27mi
265 15th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,462	$1.51	62d	4	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Metal roofMobile home dimensions reported in feet
• Exterior features: DeckLot approximately 0.16 acres (50 x 140)Zoned for single-family residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)Bedroom sizes approximately 10 x 11, 10 x 9, and 12 x 11
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Central heatingCentral air
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $187,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $187,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $187,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $187,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $187,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $187,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $187,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $187,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $187,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $187,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $187,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $187,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $187,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $187,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $187,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $187,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $187,000 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $187,000 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $187,000 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $187,000 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $187,000 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $197,000 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $197,000 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $197,000 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    status $197,000 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-06-23
    remarks 573-char remark
27. 2026-06-23
    statusdays on market $197,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
28. 2026-06-21
    days on market $197,000 Active 40 DOM
29. 2026-06-19
    days on market $197,000 Active 38 DOM
30. 2026-06-18
    days on market $197,000 Active 37 DOM
31. 2026-06-17
    days on market $197,000 Active 36 DOM
32. 2026-06-16
    days on market $197,000 Active 35 DOM
33. 2026-06-15
    days on market $197,000 Active 34 DOM
34. 2026-06-14
    days on market $197,000 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $197,000 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-10
    days on market $197,000 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-06-09
    days on market $197,000 Active 28 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    days on market $197,000 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 26 DOM
40. 2026-06-05
    days on market $197,000 Active 23 DOM
41. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 22 DOM
42. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 21 DOM
43. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 20 DOM
44. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 19 DOM
45. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,000 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-05-12
    listed $197,000 Active 511-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$5,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $-942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,560–$13,680 screening

This charming Craftsman home in Panama City's Cove neighborhood is move-in ready with good condition and fresh updates. Potential buyers will appreciate the location and original details.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale update flooring in bathrooms — improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Merriam Cherry Street Elementary F FL #1,896/2,144 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Jinks Middle School F FL #348/571 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,947
• Household income: $52,523
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.12%
• Current HPI: 290.3312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Metal roofMobile home dimensions reported in feet
• Exterior features: DeckLot approximately 0.16 acres (50 x 140)Zoned for single-family residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)Bedroom sizes approximately 10 x 11, 10 x 9, and 12 x 11
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Central heatingCentral air
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $197,000 CPARMLS