821 Runnells Branch Rd

Hindman, KY 41822

$54,999B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $346/mo
• Annual: $4,148/yr
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.94%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($919 rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#492 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, amenities F.
• Knott County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #109 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knott County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed framing in kitchen and bath — Structural integrity compromised
• Major: Metal roof with visible rust — Structural integrity compromised
• Major: Weathered siding — Structural integrity compromised
• Major: Exposed ductwork in HVAC — Structural integrity compromised
• Major: Exposed concrete foundation — Structural integrity compromised