821 Runnells Branch Rd · Hindman, KY 41822

$54,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1946 Poor condition 4.75 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4.75+/- acre property offers plenty of potential. The land provides a mix of open and wooded areas with room for a large garden, small farm, or your dream home site. A house currently sits on the property but is considered to have little to no value. With some clearing and vision, this could be the perfect spot for your next project or peaceful country retreat.

Key facts

• 4.75 acre property
• Large garden
• Small farm

Tags

• 4.75 ACRE PROPERTY
• OPEN AND WOODED AREAS
• LARGE GARDEN
• SMALL FARM
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($919 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#492 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, amenities F.
• Knott County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #109 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Knott County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.94%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $13,120
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $39,832
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41822

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $54,999

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,999 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,999 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,999 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,999 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,999 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,999 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,999 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,999 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,999 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,999 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,999 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,999 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,999 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,999 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,999 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    status Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 4.75+/- acre property offers plenty of potential. The land provides a mix of open and wooded areas with room for a large garden, small farm, or your dream home site. A house currently sits on the property but is considered to have little to no value. With some clearing and vision, this could be the perfect spot for your next project or peaceful country retreat.

17. 2026-05-15
    price $54,999 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 4.75+/- acre property offers plenty of potential. The land provides a mix of open and wooded areas with room for a large garden, small farm, or your dream home site. A house currently sits on the property but is considered to have little to no value. With some clearing and vision, this could be the perfect spot for your next project or peaceful country retreat.

18. 2026-05-10
    historical 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 4.75+/- acre property offers plenty of potential. The land provides a mix of open and wooded areas with room for a large garden, small farm, or your dream home site. A house currently sits on the property but is considered to have little to no value. With some clearing and vision, this could be the perfect spot for your next project or peaceful country retreat.

19. 2025-11-10
    listed $60,000 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 4.75+/- acre property offers plenty of potential. The land provides a mix of open and wooded areas with room for a large garden, small farm, or your dream home site. A house currently sits on the property but is considered to have little to no value. With some clearing and vision, this could be the perfect spot for your next project or peaceful country retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$882
• − Management: −$882
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$835
• After-tax cash flow: $3,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to become move-in ready. Significant structural and aesthetic improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed framing in kitchen and bath — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Metal roof with visible rust — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Weathered siding — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Exposed ductwork in HVAC — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Exposed concrete foundation — Structural integrity compromised

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Both New siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Both New HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both New flooring — Improves appearance and comfort
• Both Painting — Improves appearance and comfort
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed framing in kitchen and bath · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Metal roof with visible rust · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Weathered siding · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed ductwork in HVAC · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed concrete foundation · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both New siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves appearance and comfort ↑
• Both Painting — Improves appearance and comfort ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knott County
• NCES district ID: 2103120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,599
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7525
• State rank: #109 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hindman

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #492
• US rank: #24861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,979

Population outlook (Knott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,310 people
• By 2030: 13,485 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,794 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 10,334 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 8,098 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 6,847 · -52.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.7% · R 78.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+53.9 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.67%
• Current HPI: 160.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $54,999 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $60,000 ImagineMLS