9930 Hernandez Dr

Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$120,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $1,016/mo
• Annual: $12,189/yr
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.28%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.