9930 Hernandez Dr · Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1988 2.00 ac lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

HUD-Owned Opportunity on 2 Acres in Lake Don Pedro! Bring your vision and make this property your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,620 square feet of living space, set on a spacious 2-acre lot—ideal for animals, horses, or creating your dream rural retreat. Enjoy sweeping views of the rolling hills and down into the valley, offering a peaceful and scenic setting. Located in the Lake Don Pedro subdivision, residents have access to a seasonal community pool open during the summer for members and their guests (up to 6). Conveniently located near Lake Don Pedro, where you can enjoy boating, fishing, and a variety of outdoor recreational activities. With

Key facts

• Boating
• 2 acres
• Lake don pedro

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• LAKE DON PEDRO
• SEASONAL COMMUNITY POOL
• BOATING
• FISHING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Part of an association with a clubhouse; Annual association fee of $150

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: 220 volts in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Single-story (entry at main level); Built in 1988; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Vinyl skirt (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Yard space; Premium lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Range/Oven free standing; 220-volt outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.28%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,500
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9844 Banderilla Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,547 (-4%)	0mo	$340,000	$220	55
9791 Villarreal	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-14%)	13mo	$312,000	$225	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $70,451
• Equity at exit: $44,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $171,813
• Equity at exit: $62,247

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95329

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,297/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $1,016

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,084	-5% $1,050	+0% $1,016	+5% $982	+10% $948
Rent	-10% $826	-5% $921	+0% $1,016	+5% $1,111	+10% $1,206
Rate	-1.0pp $1,076	-0.5pp $1,046	base $1,016	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $120,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   status $120,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-09
   listed $120,000 Active
9. 2024-01-31
   historical
10. 2023-11-16
    listed $151,888 Active
11. 2016-02-17
    soldstatus $169,000
12. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $182,000
13. 2003-01-29
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,297 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,297 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,297
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $10,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,633
• After-tax cash flow: $9,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Don Pedro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #23601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Don Pedro, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,339

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 163.9206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed $151,888 CRMLS
• 2016-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,297 · -38.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.