818 Curtis St

Paris, TN 38242

$18,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$99
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $640/mo
• Annual: $7,681/yr
• Cap rate: 46.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.15%
• DSCR: 7.46
• 1% rule: 5.11%
• Cash to close: $5,292

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $19k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $567 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#13 in TN, #4,115 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Paris (town): math 42% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #28 of 139 in TN (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paris Elementary (math 50% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 507 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $10; list at $19k implies a 188900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.