818 Curtis St · Paris, TN 38242

$18,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1945 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special, Fix/Flip and make some cash. Most Demo has been completed. Put your vision to work & turn this property into a gem. Several other properties renovated in this neighborhood already which makes this a good opportunity to jump in on the growing momentum. Showings by appointment only. Do not enter the house without prior permission. Submit your offer today!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 128 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking; No parking spaces listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Existing structure
• Construction: Built existing (year not specified); Construction materials listed as Other
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.17 acres; Lot dimensions about 50 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: No basement; No built-in heating; No built-in cooling; Other flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#13 in TN, #4,115 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Paris (town): math 42% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #28 of 139 in TN (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paris Elementary (math 50% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 507 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $567 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10; list at $19k implies a 188900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.15%
• DSCR: 7.46
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $37,715
• Equity at exit: $2,818

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.13×
• Total profit: $85,375
• Equity at exit: $1,634

Cash invested: $5,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38242

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$99
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $155

Max offer price $18,900

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $645	+0% $640	+5% $635	+10% $629
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $602	+0% $640	+5% $678	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $645	base $640	+0.5pp $635	+1.0pp $630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,725
• Closing costs: $567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   price $18,900
3. 2026-03-10
   price $24,900
4. 2026-01-15
   listed $39,500 Active
5. 2025-12-01
   soldstatus $10
6. 2000-12-29
   soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,059
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$94
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$550
• Taxable income: $7,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $5,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris
• NCES district ID: 4703360
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $30,045
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6330
• State rank: #28 of 139 in TN

Livability — Paris

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #4115

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TN
• City population: 19,619
• Population (ZIP): 19,619

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,750 people
• By 2030: 31,277 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 30,064 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 28,675 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 25,767 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 22,318 · -29.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.8% · R 77.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.93%
• Current HPI: 234.3442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $18,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $24,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $39,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $10 Public Records
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $188 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.