Bluebird Plan

Northfield, MN 55057

$185,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-579/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $51,940

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $186k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-579/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#28 in MN, #872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northfield Public School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #35 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenvale Park Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Northfield Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #29 of 258 statewide, top 12%, 846 students, 26% FRL); Northfield Senior High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,246 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.