Bluebird Plan · Northfield, MN 55057

$185,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · Townhouse · 33 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Construction is slated to begin July 2026, with estimated occupancy in Fall/Winter 2027. Contact Gracewin today to learn about pricing and payment options, how to reserve your favorite unit with only 20% of the share payment down before construction begins, and how you can personalize your finishes at no additional cost! HOME FEATURES: - Open concept floor plan - Lots of daylighting and views in two directions. - Reach-in closet by entrance - In-unit washer and dryer - Quartz Countertops in kitchen (standard) - Dishwasher and microwave - Under cabinet lights in kitchen - Single-level counter with breakfast bar seating - En suite master bath - Walk-in closets in bedrooms - Balco

Key facts

• En suite master bath
• Balcony or patio
• Parking

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS IN KITCHEN
• EN SUITE MASTER BATH
• WALK IN CLOSETS IN BEDROOMS
• BALCONY OR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Central electric for cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan; Located in Northfield, MN (55057)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,169

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan name: Bluebird; Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $186k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-579/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#28 in MN, #872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northfield Public School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #35 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenvale Park Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Northfield Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #29 of 258 statewide, top 12%, 846 students, 26% FRL); Northfield Senior High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,246 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,165 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-33,108
• Equity at exit: $27,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,691
• Equity at exit: $16,039

Cash invested: $51,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55057

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,782/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $178,519

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $16	+0% $-48	+5% $-112	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-110	+0% $-48	+5% $13	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-1	base $-48	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,375
• Closing costs: $5,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Grundhoefer Ct Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	5d	1	0.79mi
705 Grundhoefer Ct Unit Na Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	0d	1	0.79mi
801 Kraewood Dr Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$2,100	$2.95	0d	11	0.92mi
710 3rd St W Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$935	$1.17	45d	1	1.26mi
501 1st St W Unit 503 Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	16d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,500 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,500 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,500 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,500 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,500 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,500 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,500 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,500 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,500 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,500 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,500 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,782
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$5,396
• Taxable loss: −$3,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$901
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with a modern open-concept floor plan and high-end finishes. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723880
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $68,475
• Composite: 52.82/100
• National rank: #1538
• State rank: #35 of 301 in MN

Livability — Northfield

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #872

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northfield, MN
• County: Rice County · 56,558 people
• City population: 25,650
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• Population (ZIP): 25,650
• Household income: $92,622
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.42%
• Current HPI: 242.4818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B