2653 Beaver Rd

Union, KY 41091

$170,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $519/mo
• Annual: $6,223/yr
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.07%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary School (math 60% / reading 54%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B, #3 of 217 statewide, top 1%, 1,029 students, 27% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $170k implies a 1033% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.