2653 Beaver Rd · Union, KY 41091

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1999 5.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back On The Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Key facts

• 4.75 acres
• Private setting
• Short drive to town

Tags

• 4.75 ACRES
• PRIVATE SETTING
• SHORT DRIVE TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary School (math 60% / reading 54%, grade C+, #47 of 676 statewide, top 8%, 675 students, 22% FRL); Gray Middle School (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B, #3 of 217 statewide, top 1%, 1,029 students, 27% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $170k implies a 1033% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.07%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,398
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $46,893
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41091

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $567	+0% $519	+5% $470	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $367	-5% $443	+0% $519	+5% $594	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $562	base $519	+0.5pp $475	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $170,000
3. 2026-03-04
   status Active
4. 2026-02-21
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-27
   status Active
6. 2025-12-27
   price $175,000
7. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-06
   listed $199,500 Active
9. 2004-12-17
   soldstatus $15,000
10. 1998-02-02
    soldstatus $25,700 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Back On The Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

11. 1998-02-02
    soldstatus $27,500

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Back On The Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

12. 1997-07-30
    listed $32,921 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Back On The Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

13. 1996-05-07
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,098/yr (+$91/mo · 301.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $5,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Union

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 24,371

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.29%
• Current HPI: 175.3571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+580.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $170,000 NKMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-02-21 Pending — NKMLS
• 2025-12-27 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $175,000 NKMLS
• 2025-11-10 Pending — NKMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $199,500 NKMLS
• 2004-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1998-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1998-02-02 Sold (MLS) $25,700 NKMLS
• 1997-07-30 Listed $32,921 NKMLS
• 1996-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $364 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.