27 Thomas St

South River, NJ 08882

$599,999F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$799
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-1,338/mo
• Annual: $-16,058/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (45.0% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $330k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#43 in NJ, #1,117 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• South River Public School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #391 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South River Elementary School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,303 statewide, top 85%, 659 students, 57% FRL); South River Middle School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #370 of 431 statewide, top 86%, 530 students, 60% FRL); South River High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #239 of 399 statewide, top 61%, 762 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 33% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,971 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (1,193 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $600k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.