27 Thomas St · South River, NJ 08882

$599,999

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1910 5,001 sqft lot Est $525k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner occupied 2 family..immaculate interior..replaced windows,,sided exterior..plenty of off street parking..Bonus feature of 1160 sq.ft.(approximate) separate building ready to be finished..close proximity to town and shopping..

Key facts

• Finished attic
• Private balcony
• Two family home

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• SPACIOUS UNITS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• FINISHED ATTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Expenses include: see remarks
• Financial info: Property is a 2-unit multi-family; Unit 2 has rent and security deposit listed (rent: $2,000; security deposit: $2,000); Net operating income, gross income, and operating expenses listed as 0 (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Total 10 parking spaces; Detached finished oversize garage (2-car spaces); 1-car-width driveway with blacktop, exclusive driveway; On-street parking available; Fencing around parking area
• Utilities: All utilities underground; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story unit style; White exterior color; Approximate year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Roof: see remarks; Foundation includes crawl space; partial, unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Privacy fence; Vinyl siding; See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Kitchen: Unit 1: Microwave, Refrigerator, Eat-in kitchen; Unit 2: Microwave, Range/Oven - Gas, Refrigerator, Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 1 bedroom (single-level); Unit 2: 1 bedroom (two-level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Two heating units with baseboard hot water; Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Fire extinguisher; Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Unit 1: Stackable washer/dryer; Unit 2: Laundry area (listed in room descriptions); Water heater (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#43 in NJ, #1,117 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• South River Public School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #391 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South River Elementary School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,303 statewide, top 85%, 659 students, 57% FRL); South River Middle School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #370 of 431 statewide, top 86%, 530 students, 60% FRL); South River High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #239 of 399 statewide, top 61%, 762 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 33% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,971 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (1,193 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $600k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,058 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $524,875
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 John St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,616 (+0%)	0mo	$525,000	$325	79
30 Leland Ave	0.09mi	4/1.5	1,560 (-3%)	8mo	$535,000	$343	73
141 E Prospect St	0.25mi	4/1.5	1,712 (+6%)	1mo	$535,000	$313	67
21 George St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-13%)	4mo	$405,000	$288	58
67 Washington St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	3mo	$485,000	$334	56
15 Leland Ave	0.06mi	4/1.0	1,380 (-15%)	9mo	$445,000	$322	53
12 Yates Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,646 (+2%)	6mo	$580,214	$352	53
100 Jackson St	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,825 (+13%)	8mo	$550,000	$301	52
126 Prentice Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,592 (-1%)	1mo	$555,000	$349	47
30 Burton Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,372 (-15%)	3mo	$375,000	$273	40
30 Mageira St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	2mo	$350,000	$241	36
77 Wilcox Ave	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,404 (-13%)	7mo	$524,700	$374	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-182,527
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-268,984
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08882

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,590/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-1,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,994

Max offer price $363,609

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-999	-5% $-1,168	+0% $-1,338	+5% $-1,508	+10% $-1,678
Rent	-10% $-1,599	-5% $-1,469	+0% $-1,338	+5% $-1,208	+10% $-1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,036	-0.5pp $-1,186	base $-1,338	+0.5pp $-1,494	+1.0pp $-1,652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 William St South River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,600	$1.35	26d	1	0.38mi
4 Wilcox Ave Unit B South River, NJ	3.0	1.0	2080	$3,000	$1.44	26d	1	0.42mi
48 Johnson Pl South River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1626	$3,500	$2.15	4d	1	0.74mi
5 Sussex Ct South River, NJ	4.0	1.5	1695	$3,500	$2.06	22d	1	0.79mi
5 Sussex Ct South River, NJ	4.0	1.5	1695	$3,500	$2.06	0d	1	0.79mi
29 Levinson Ave South River, NJ	4.0	2.5	1232	$3,100	$2.52	18d	1	0.87mi
527 Old Bridge Tpke East Brunswick, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1131	$4,187	$3.70	0d	41	0.88mi
11A Foothills Dr South River, NJ	4.0	2.0	1819	$3,500	$1.92	0d	1	0.92mi
1 Legacy Pl East Brunswick, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1416	$4,095	$2.89	0d	16	1.14mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,999 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,999 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listing id $599,999 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $599,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,590 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,765 · $897/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,175/yr (+$348/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$6,590
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,169
• − Management: −$3,169
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$27,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,572
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3415390
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,074
• Composite: 22.07/100
• National rank: #8190
• State rank: #391 of 472 in NJ

Livability — South River

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1117

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South River, NJ
• City population: 16,007
• Population (ZIP): 16,007

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 901,713 people
• By 2030: 930,661 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 986,276 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 1,038,920 · +15.2%
• By 2075: 1,159,418 · +28.6%
• By 2100: 1,221,973 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Russian 9% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.0) · D 52.5% · R 44.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 21.8pp · 2024: 8.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.0 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+19.8 2012: D+27.0 2008: D+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.11%
• Current HPI: 312.1881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+118.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $599,999 GSMLS
• 2016-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-04 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GSMLS
• 2016-01-04 Sold (MLS) $215,000 CJMLS
• 2015-11-24 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2015-11-20 Delisted — CJMLS
• 2015-11-19 Contingent — CJMLS
• 2015-09-29 Price Changed $235,000 GSMLS
• 2015-09-29 Price Changed $235,000 CJMLS
• 2015-07-24 Listed $275,000 GSMLS
• 2015-07-24 Listed $275,000 CJMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,590 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.