407 S State St

Caney, KS 67333

$16,990B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$94
• Net cashflow: $219/mo
• Annual: $2,631/yr
• Cap rate: 21.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.30%
• DSCR: 3.46
• 1% rule: 2.65%
• Cash to close: $4,757

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $17k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($450 rent vs $17k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $152 of equity ($118 loan paydown + $34 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Caney Valley (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #24 of 169 in KS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.