407 S State St · Caney, KS 67333

$16,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1915 6,969 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Large shed in back
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• PARTIAL CHAIN LINK FENCING
• LARGE SHED IN BACK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.16 acres (50 x 143.5); Living area reported as 888; Age listed as 101+ years; Directions provided by listing: Coming in Caney north or south on Hwy 75 turn west on 4th Street and go to State Street. Turn left and go to the address.
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: City/public water (verify); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Bungalow style; Located inside city limits
• Construction: Frame construction; Other construction materials; Composition roof; Other roof materials
• Exterior features: Porch (screened); Shed(s); Paved road access; Not in flood plain

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window AC unit(s)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Crawl space basement; Bungalow floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($450 rent vs $17k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Caney Valley (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #24 of 169 in KS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $152 of equity ($118 loan paydown + $34 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,970 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.30%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 N Mcgee St	0.63mi	2/1.0	934 (+5%)	6mo	$39,500	$42	57
402 N Mcgee N/A	0.71mi	2/1.0	864 (-3%)	8mo	$78,000	$90	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $13,644
• Equity at exit: $5,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $32,345
• Equity at exit: $6,271

Cash invested: $4,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67333

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$94
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $172

Max offer price $16,990

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,248
• Closing costs: $510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
804 N Wood St Unit 813 Caney, KS	2.0	1.0	552	$450	$0.82	23d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $16,990 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $16,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $16,990 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $16,990 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $16,990 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $16,990 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $16,990 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $16,990 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $16,990 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $23,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $23,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $23,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $23,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $23,900 Active
17. 2025-02-28
    historical
18. 2025-02-25
    status Active
19. 2025-02-12
    status Pending
20. 2024-12-06
    price $25,000
21. 2024-12-05
    status Active
22. 2024-11-03
    status Pending
23. 2024-09-28
    price $29,000
24. 2024-08-23
    listed $34,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $5,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$952
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$85
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$432
• − Management: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$494
• Taxable income: $2,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$606
• After-tax cash flow: $2,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caney Valley
• NCES district ID: 2004410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,168
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4486
• State rank: #24 of 169 in KS

Livability — Caney

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #7653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caney, KS
• Population (ZIP): 2,534

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,729 people
• By 2030: 27,786 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 24,201 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 21,280 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 16,754 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 14,088 · -52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.1) · D 23.6% · R 74.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.1 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Current HPI: 145.0094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-29.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $23,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $25,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-05 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-03 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-28 Price Changed $29,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Listed $34,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.