3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
3,016 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 184 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,338/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,571
Tax + insurance
−$499
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$491
Net cashflow
$-223/mo
Annual
$-2,677/yr
Cap rate
5.40%
Cash-on-cash
-3.19%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$83,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (21.9% below list).
It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $234k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Godwin El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 587 students, 65% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-61MDZJ9CTA3S48
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29