45674 Bethfield Way

California, MD 20619

$369,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $543/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($543/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (17.6% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $304k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #176 of 860 statewide, top 21%, 736 students, 24% FRL); Leonardtown Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #49 of 225 statewide, top 22%, 969 students, 27% FRL); Leonardtown High (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,039 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Mary'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $255k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.