45674 Bethfield Way · California, MD 20619

$369,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2019 1,800 sqft lot Est $328k · 13% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold & Settled new construction Olympia #3 3 level townhome at Elizabeth Hills. This 3 level townhome features a finished basement featuring a rec room, full bath and den on a walkout site with a 10x10 concrete patio. 1st floor is the mid kitchen layout featuring granite countertops & upgraded cabinets for the kitchen, with family room and front dining room area w. Bay window. Upper level will feature 3bd, 2baths, plus laundry room. Home also will feature 10x12 composite deck w. landing and stairs and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• $17 HOA
• Built 2019
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; Property listed in excellent condition; Energy-efficient features in appliances, construction, lighting, and HVAC
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $200; Community amenities include jog/walk path, picnic area, and tot lots/playground; No pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; On-street parking; Neighborhood parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; 200+ amp electric service; Cable TV available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Entry level is the 2nd floor; Located outside city limits; Black top road access
• Construction: Built by Marrick Properties, Inc.; Vinyl siding with combination and stone accents; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Low-E, ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Backs to open common area; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven - single; Electric range; Dishwasher; Range hood; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Family room off the kitchen; Kitchen island; Breakfast area; Chair railings; Upgraded countertops; Crown moldings; Master bath(s); Wainscoting; Open floor plan; Combination dining and living areas; 9'+ ceilings; Drywall walls and ceilings; ENERGY STAR qualified doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry hookups on upper floor; High-efficiency water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($543/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #176 of 860 statewide, top 21%, 736 students, 24% FRL); Leonardtown Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #49 of 225 statewide, top 22%, 969 students, 27% FRL); Leonardtown High (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,039 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Mary'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $103k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $255k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,999 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45657 Bethfield Way	0.03mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,139 (-2%)	10mo	$320,000	$150	81
45621 Bethfield Way	0.06mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,086 (-4%)	20mo	$355,000	$170	68
21219 Lizmill Way	0.17mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,434 (+11%)	10mo	$339,000	$139	59
21207 Lizmill Way	0.18mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,420 (+11%)	18mo	$360,000	$149	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.3% appreciation · 6.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $45,699
• Equity at exit: $151,668

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $196,373
• Equity at exit: $223,209

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20619

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,006/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,983

Max offer price $369,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $150	+0% $45	+5% $-59	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-75	+0% $45	+5% $165	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $139	base $45	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $369,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 483-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $369,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $369,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-24
    historical $369,000
19. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Sold & Settled new construction Olympia #3 3 level townhome at Elizabeth Hills. This 3 level townhome features a finished basement featuring a rec room, full bath and den on a walkout site with a 10x10 concrete patio. 1st floor is the mid kitchen layout featuring granite countertops & upgraded cabinets for the kitchen, with family room and front dining room area w. Bay window. Upper level will feature 3bd, 2baths, plus laundry room. Home also will feature 10x12 composite deck w. landing and stairs and stainless steel appliances.

20. 2019-09-03
    status Pending 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Sold & Settled new construction Olympia #3 3 level townhome at Elizabeth Hills. This 3 level townhome features a finished basement featuring a rec room, full bath and den on a walkout site with a 10x10 concrete patio. 1st floor is the mid kitchen layout featuring granite countertops & upgraded cabinets for the kitchen, with family room and front dining room area w. Bay window. Upper level will feature 3bd, 2baths, plus laundry room. Home also will feature 10x12 composite deck w. landing and stairs and stainless steel appliances.

21. 2019-08-02
    price $257,900 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Sold & Settled new construction Olympia #3 3 level townhome at Elizabeth Hills. This 3 level townhome features a finished basement featuring a rec room, full bath and den on a walkout site with a 10x10 concrete patio. 1st floor is the mid kitchen layout featuring granite countertops & upgraded cabinets for the kitchen, with family room and front dining room area w. Bay window. Upper level will feature 3bd, 2baths, plus laundry room. Home also will feature 10x12 composite deck w. landing and stairs and stainless steel appliances.

22. 2019-03-16
    listed $260,900 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Sold & Settled new construction Olympia #3 3 level townhome at Elizabeth Hills. This 3 level townhome features a finished basement featuring a rec room, full bath and den on a walkout site with a 10x10 concrete patio. 1st floor is the mid kitchen layout featuring granite countertops & upgraded cabinets for the kitchen, with family room and front dining room area w. Bay window. Upper level will feature 3bd, 2baths, plus laundry room. Home also will feature 10x12 composite deck w. landing and stairs and stainless steel appliances.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,006 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,514 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,006
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,918
• − Management: −$2,918
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$5,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,212
• Household income: $119,432
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Current HPI: 239.4326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+41.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Coming Soon $369,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $257,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-16 Listed $260,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+21.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,006 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.