2549 Heathrow Dr

Bradfordville, FL 32312

$374,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-254/mo
• Annual: $-3,044/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $232k; list at $375k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Bradfordville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.