406 Debbie St

Little Elm, TX 75068

$117,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $967/mo
• Annual: $11,601/yr
• Cap rate: 16.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.41%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $32,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $967 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.