406 Debbie St · Little Elm, TX 75068

$117,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1982 7,492 sqft lot $122/sqft · 44% below area Est $210k · 44% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers an excellent opportunity just minutes from the shores of Lake Lewisville. Enjoy the appeal of lakeside living with convenient access to boating, dining, and outdoor recreation. In addition to its prime location, freshly painted interior, new flooring throughout, the home is capable of generating significant rental income, making it a strong option for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or income-producing property, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in a growing area. Buyer to verify square footage

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Lakeside living
• Access to boating

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• ACCESS TO BOATING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• GENERATING RENTAL INCOME
• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY
• GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $967 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,490 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.41%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,326
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: -44.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Allen St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	22mo	$209,000	$207	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $36,307
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $86,522
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $923

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $1,000	+0% $967	+5% $934	+10% $901
Rent	-10% $797	-5% $882	+0% $967	+5% $1,052	+10% $1,136
Rate	-1.0pp $1,026	-0.5pp $997	base $967	+0.5pp $936	+1.0pp $906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 E Eldorado Pkwy Little Elm, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,049	$2.05	2d	21	0.88mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $117,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $117,000 Active Option Contract 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $117,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $117,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $117,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $117,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $117,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $127,499 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    This property offers an excellent opportunity just minutes from the shores of Lake Lewisville. Enjoy the appeal of lakeside living with convenient access to boating, dining, and outdoor recreation. In addition to its prime location, freshly painted interior, new flooring throughout, the home is capable of generating significant rental income, making it a strong option for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or income-producing property, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in a growing area. Buyer to verify square footage

11. 2026-04-27
    price $129,999 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    This property offers an excellent opportunity just minutes from the shores of Lake Lewisville. Enjoy the appeal of lakeside living with convenient access to boating, dining, and outdoor recreation. In addition to its prime location, freshly painted interior, new flooring throughout, the home is capable of generating significant rental income, making it a strong option for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or income-producing property, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in a growing area. Buyer to verify square footage

12. 2026-04-13
    listed $140,000 Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    This property offers an excellent opportunity just minutes from the shores of Lake Lewisville. Enjoy the appeal of lakeside living with convenient access to boating, dining, and outdoor recreation. In addition to its prime location, freshly painted interior, new flooring throughout, the home is capable of generating significant rental income, making it a strong option for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or income-producing property, this home delivers both lifestyle and value in a growing area. Buyer to verify square footage

13. 2025-08-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 167.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $10,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $9,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Elm, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $127,499 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.