81 Clay St #224

Seattle, WA 98121

$380,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$763
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-1,233/mo
• Annual: $-14,796/yr
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.91%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (57.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (31.6% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#166 in WA, #4,033 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Seattle Public Schools (urban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #19 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 229 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $314k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.6% in Seattle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?