81 Clay St #224 · Seattle, WA 98121

$380,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Condo public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2008 $409/sqft · 30% below area Est $542k · 30% under $763/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Urban elegance comes alive in this spacious 1-bedroom + den home in the heart of Belltown. This light-filled residence features beautiful bamboo floors, custom kitchen cabinetry, and an oversized granite island—perfect for entertaining. The wide-open floor plan includes a custom den ideal for a home office or easily convertible to a Murphy bed for guests. The primary suite offers a full double-vanity bathroom and generous closet space. Enjoy premier amenities including a rooftop deck with breathtaking city, Sound, and mountain views, owners’ lounge, fitness center, courtyard, guest suite, and 24/7 concierge. A strong HOA, no rental cap, and 30-day minimum rental policy make this

Key facts

• Rooftop deck
• Bamboo floors
• $763 HOA

Tags

• BAMBOO FLOORS
• CUSTOM KITCHEN CABINETRY
• OVERSIZED GRANITE ISLAND
• DOUBLE-VANITY BATHROOM
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• ROOFTOP DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (57.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.6% in Seattle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#166 in WA, #4,033 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Seattle Public Schools (urban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #19 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 229 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $314k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $162,191 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.91%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $542,468
• List price: $380,000
• Delta: -29.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.81% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-110,992
• Equity at exit: $95,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-190,675
• Equity at exit: $102,825

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Seattle: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+52

Just Cause + Relocation Assistance + Source of Income + First in Time.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98121

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,474/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$763
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-1,233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,161

Max offer price $162,191

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
81 Clay St #526 Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	652	$2,150	$3.30	1d	1	0.01mi
2800 Western Ave Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,629	$3.02	1d	6	0.02mi
2801 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	721	$2,500	$3.47	18d	1	0.02mi
2801 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	719	$2,500	$3.48	1d	1	0.02mi
2721 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	617	$2,022	$3.28	43d	3	0.02mi
2721 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	657	$2,150	$3.27	1d	1	0.03mi
2717 Western Ave #1116 Seattle, WA	2.0	2.0	1070	$4,250	$3.97	1d	1	0.05mi
2717 Western Ave #1014 Seattle, WA	—	1.0	720	$2,400	$3.33	43d	1	0.05mi
2801 Western Ave Seattle, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1409	$2,753	$1.95	1d	22	0.06mi
62 Cedar St Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	701	$3,270	$4.66	18d	5	0.08mi
62 Cedar St #657 Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	565	$3,400	$6.02	1d	2	0.08mi
2716 Elliott Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	2.0	1054	$3,000	$2.85	4d	1	0.08mi
2716 Elliott Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	2.0	1054	$3,200	$3.04	17d	1	0.08mi
2716 Elliott Ave #402 Seattle, WA	1.0	2.0	1054	$3,200	$3.04	21d	1	0.08mi
2922 Western Ave Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$2,118	$3.10	1d	12	0.10mi
2900 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$2,629	$3.59	1d	3	0.10mi
2607 Western Ave Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,450	$2.74	2d	2	0.11mi
2607 Western Ave #710 Seattle, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$3,650	$3.56	1d	1	0.11mi
10 Clay St Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	625	$2,895	$4.63	1d	2	0.11mi
10 Clay St Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$1,975	$2.38	13d	1	0.11mi
2911 2nd Ave Seattle, WA	2.0	2.0	1066	$3,600	$3.38	18d	1	0.11mi
2911 2nd Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	603	$1,795	$2.98	1d	1	0.11mi
2510 Western Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	627	$1,660	$2.65	1d	1	0.14mi
75 Vine St Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$3,422	$4.42	1d	11	0.14mi
121 Vine St #602 Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	661	$2,550	$3.86	1d	1	0.15mi
225 Cedar St Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$2,694	$3.79	1d	18	0.15mi
2504 Western Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,022	$3.37	1d	2	0.16mi
2720 3rd Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$2,350	$3.62	1d	1	0.16mi
2720 3rd Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$2,450	$3.77	24d	1	0.16mi
210 Wall St Seattle, WA	3.0	1.0–3.5	1176	$4,092	$3.48	1d	1	0.17mi
159 Denny Way Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0–1.5	696	$2,900	$4.16	1d	3	0.18mi
311 Cedar St Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	724	$1,876	$2.59	1d	14	0.19mi
3028 1st Ave Seattle, WA	—	1.0	794	$1,402	$1.77	43d	5	0.20mi
2414 1st Ave Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	553	$1,948	$3.52	1d	1	0.21mi
2440 Western Ave Apt 408 Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,900	$2.92	43d	1	0.21mi
2400 Elliott Ave Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,971	$1.98	1d	16	0.21mi
351 Broad St Seattle, WA	1.0	1.0	640	$1,800	$2.81	23d	1	0.22mi
351 Broad St Seattle, WA	2.0	2.0	1016	$3,850	$3.79	1d	1	0.22mi
105 Warren Ave N Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,809	$2.36	1d	5	0.22mi
116 Warren Ave N Seattle, WA	2.0	2.0	1012	$3,095	$3.06	7d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $763 · $9,156/yr
• Likely covers: gymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $380,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $380,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $380,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $380,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $380,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $380,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $380,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $380,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-04-15
    price $380,000
20. 2026-02-16
    price $425,000
21. 2026-02-09
    listed $475,000 Active
22. 2013-09-11
    historical
23. 2013-09-10
    soldstatus $314,000 Sold
24. 2013-09-10
    soldstatus $314,000
25. 2013-08-27
    status Pending
26. 2013-08-14
    listed $335,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,474 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,474 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$4,474
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − HOA: −$9,156
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$21,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seattle Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5307710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,695
• Composite: 60.76/100
• National rank: #1649
• State rank: #19 of 291 in WA

Livability — Seattle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4033

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seattle, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 706,262
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 21,166
• Household income: $152,019
• Rent vs Own: 77.4% rent · 22.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1835.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Asian 34% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 40% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Chinese 10% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.81%
• Current HPI: 165.0124
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+13.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $380,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $425,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $475,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-11 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $314,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-10 Sold (MLS) $314,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-14 Listed $335,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,474 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.