4603 Balfour Rd #58

Brentwood, CA 94513

$159,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 255 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $946/mo
• Annual: $11,348/yr
• Cap rate: 13.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.49%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#525 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garin Elementary (790 students, 25% FRL); Edna Hill Middle (995 students, 24% FRL); Liberty High (2,786 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $159k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.7% in Brentwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.