4603 Balfour Rd #58 · Brentwood, CA 94513

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 254 Days on market

Est $243k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath dining room and living room with additional sun porch. New carpet, new vinyl flooring in kitchen, laundry & porch. Washer, dryer, & fridge included w/o warranty. Separate laundry room. New paint through most of home. Enclosed sun porch not included in square footage.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Screened-in porch
• Space for gardening

Tags

• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM
• FULLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• SPACE FOR GARDENING
• MOVE-IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Senior community; Community amenities include clubhouse, greenbelt, and pool; Park name: Woodgate Park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: 220 volts available in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (mobile home); Double-wide; Faces north
• Construction: Masonite exterior
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio; Shed(s); Community pool; Clubhouse; Greenbelt

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Kitchen island; Built-in oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; 220 volt outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Double pane windows; Sun porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (in-unit laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 2.7% in Brentwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#525 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garin Elementary (790 students, 25% FRL); Edna Hill Middle (995 students, 24% FRL); Liberty High (2,786 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 359 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $159k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.94%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4603 Balfour Rd #47	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-4%)	0mo	$246,000	$177	94
3660 Walnut Blvd #40	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$245,000	$170	88
4603 Balfour #29	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$200,000	$139	85
4603 Balfour Rd #83	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-3%)	6mo	$151,499	$109	84
4603 Balfour Rd #86	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	0mo	$197,000	$128	84
4603 Balfour Rd #68	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+4%)	13mo	$226,500	$152	83
4603 Balfour Rd #11	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-7%)	4mo	$235,000	$175	80
4603 Balfour Rd #97	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+8%)	9mo	$269,900	$174	79
3660 Walnut Blvd #53	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+7%)	10mo	$260,000	$169	75
3660 Walnut Blvd #46	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (-6%)	7mo	$172,500	$128	73
4603 Balfour Rd Trlr 4	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$160,000	$128	71
3660 Walnut Blvd #57	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-13%)	10mo	$235,000	$188	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $81,066
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $231,362
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94513

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $1,556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,666	-5% $1,611	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,501	+10% $1,446
Rent	-10% $1,291	-5% $1,423	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,689	+10% $1,822
Rate	-1.0pp $1,636	-0.5pp $1,597	base $1,556	+0.5pp $1,515	+1.0pp $1,473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Canterbury Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,200	$2.16	0d	1	0.53mi
611 Ash Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,995	$2.16	0d	1	0.58mi
128 Kingfisher St Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,990	$1.79	12d	1	0.93mi
1275 Central Blvd Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,650	$3.48	12d	1	0.95mi
720 Winding Creek Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,900	$1.89	12d	1	1.12mi
955 Bighorn Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$3,400	$2.22	21d	1	1.23mi
1015 Dellwood Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	3.0	1645	$3,200	$1.95	26d	1	1.23mi
1290 Business Center Dr Brentwood, CA	2.0	2.0	1124	$3,236	$2.88	0d	7	1.29mi
1100 Twinbridge Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1158	$3,250	$2.81	0d	1	1.32mi
1377 Reagan Way Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1573	$3,100	$1.97	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    status Active
17. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-24
    price $159,000
19. 2026-02-26
    price $169,000
20. 2025-12-05
    status Active
21. 2025-11-16
    status Pending
22. 2025-11-06
    status Active
23. 2025-10-15
    status Pending
24. 2025-08-22
    listed $176,000 Active
25. 2017-05-16
    soldstatus $94,900 Sold 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath dining room and living room with additional sun porch. New carpet, new vinyl flooring in kitchen, laundry & porch. Washer, dryer, & fridge included w/o warranty. Separate laundry room. New paint through most of home. Enclosed sun porch not included in square footage.

26. 2017-05-01
    status Pending - Show for Backups 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath dining room and living room with additional sun porch. New carpet, new vinyl flooring in kitchen, laundry & porch. Washer, dryer, & fridge included w/o warranty. Separate laundry room. New paint through most of home. Enclosed sun porch not included in square footage.

27. 2017-04-01
    listed $99,900 New 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath dining room and living room with additional sun porch. New carpet, new vinyl flooring in kitchen, laundry & porch. Washer, dryer, & fridge included w/o warranty. Separate laundry room. New paint through most of home. Enclosed sun porch not included in square footage.

28. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus $76,000 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Hard to find-3 bedrooms!Loads of upgrades & TLC.Light&Bright-Freshly painted interior. New carpet in front bedrooms. Spacious living Room.Formal Dining Area. 2 yr new oven. Large Master Suite. VERY NICE-WON'T LAST.

29. 2004-02-25
    historical 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Hard to find-3 bedrooms!Loads of upgrades & TLC.Light&Bright-Freshly painted interior. New carpet in front bedrooms. Spacious living Room.Formal Dining Area. 2 yr new oven. Large Master Suite. VERY NICE-WON'T LAST.

30. 2004-02-21
    listed $78,500 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Hard to find-3 bedrooms!Loads of upgrades & TLC.Light&Bright-Freshly painted interior. New carpet in front bedrooms. Spacious living Room.Formal Dining Area. 2 yr new oven. Large Master Suite. VERY NICE-WON'T LAST.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,226
• − Management: −$3,226
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $17,163
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,119
• After-tax cash flow: $14,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #17696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 69,755
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,755
• Household income: $142,223
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.60%
• Current HPI: 249.5513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+102.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $159,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $169,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-22 Listed $176,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-05-16 Sold (MLS) $94,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-05-01 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-04-01 Listed $99,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-03-16 Sold (MLS) $76,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-02-25 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-02-21 Listed $78,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR