20120 N Covington Pkwy

Southfield, MI 48076

$285,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$459
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-326/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-326/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $285k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Southfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?