53 Forest Glen Ave

Dayton, OH 45405

$85,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $260/mo
• Annual: $3,120/yr
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.97%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $24,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $86k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.