53 Forest Glen Ave · Dayton, OH 45405

$85,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1929 5,284 sqft lot Est $103k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly maintained, spacious 3 bedroom with 1 full bath. Clean as a pin! Detached 2 car garage, large yard, extended driveway for plenty of off street parking. Newer roof with dimensional shingles, newer furnace (2 years old). Convenient to the highway, bus stop, walk to STEM school, equipped with a security alarm system and replacement windows.

Key facts

• Decorative fireplace
• Private driveway
• Excellent storage

Tags

• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• EXCELLENT STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $86k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,746 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.97%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,684
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Redder Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,210 (+1%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	78
332 Ashwood Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-2%)	3mo	$134,900	$115	72
131 W Siebenthaler Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,108 (-7%)	4mo	$39,710	$36	70
148 Valleyview Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,163 (-3%)	2mo	$125,000	$107	68
55 E Siebenthaler Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+11%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	68
2624 Newport Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,207 (+1%)	2mo	$92,800	$77	62
212 E Hillcrest Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-4%)	2mo	$90,000	$79	61
104 Waverly Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,301 (+9%)	4mo	$132,000	$101	60
165 Basswood Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,253 (+5%)	2mo	$107,500	$86	59
126 Fernwood Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,028 (-14%)	3mo	$65,000	$63	54
445 Sandhurst Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,338 (+12%)	2mo	$48,950	$37	51
2401 Rugby Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,368 (+15%)	2mo	$89,000	$65	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,120
• Equity at exit: $12,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $31,156
• Equity at exit: $7,427

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45405

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 E Bruce Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1455	$1,150	$0.79	2d	1	0.22mi
15 Camden Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	833	$950	$1.14	43d	1	0.27mi
228 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	43d	1	0.30mi
38 Pointview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1140	$900	$0.79	14d	1	0.32mi
42 Pointview Ave Unit 42 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,200	$0.97	3d	1	0.33mi
244 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1273	$1,175	$0.92	2d	1	0.33mi
202 E Bruce Ave Apt 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1250	$800	$0.64	23d	1	0.33mi
65 E Maplewood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1064	$723	$0.68	43d	1	0.40mi
26 W Beechwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,050	$0.72	43d	1	0.45mi
69 Waverly Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	3d	1	0.46mi
220 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	884	$900	$1.02	3d	1	0.48mi
337 Ryburn Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	43d	1	0.48mi
2333 Rustic Rd Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	2d	1	0.51mi
2333 Rustic Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	43d	1	0.51mi
419 Sandhurst Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$975	$1.03	23d	1	0.51mi
317 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,100	$0.83	11d	1	0.56mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	3d	1	0.58mi
240 Castlewood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	912	$995	$1.09	21d	1	0.61mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	2d	1	0.61mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	0.61mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	19d	1	0.61mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	43d	1	0.67mi
829 Uhrig Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	760	$875	$1.15	14d	1	0.68mi
412 W Parkwood Dr Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	23d	1	0.68mi
147 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1096	$975	$0.89	23d	1	0.68mi
152 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	43d	1	0.70mi
439 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	43d	1	0.71mi
62 W Nottingham Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	765	$750	$0.98	23d	1	0.75mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	43d	1	0.77mi
57 Walbrook Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	861	$975	$1.13	3d	1	0.78mi
1004 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1053	$950	$0.90	23d	1	0.78mi
2327 N Main St Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	0.82mi
41 W Fairview Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,200	$0.83	14d	1	0.82mi
201 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,200	$0.84	43d	1	0.83mi
181 W Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	43d	1	0.83mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	3d	1	0.84mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	43d	1	0.84mi
1108 Rydale Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1281	$1,245	$0.97	19d	1	0.86mi
628 W Norman Ave Unit 628 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	918	$795	$0.87	43d	1	0.89mi
167 W Hudson Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,185	$0.88	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $85,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $94,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-02-10
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-30
    price $94,900
13. 2026-01-22
    status Active
14. 2026-01-03
    historical ActiveUnderContract
15. 2025-12-15
    listed $99,900 Active
16. 2019-08-27
    soldstatus $53,000
17. 2019-08-06
    soldstatus $53,900 Closed 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Lovingly maintained, spacious 3 bedroom with 1 full bath. Clean as a pin! Detached 2 car garage, large yard, extended driveway for plenty of off street parking. Newer roof with dimensional shingles, newer furnace (2 years old). Convenient to the highway, bus stop, walk to STEM school, equipped with a security alarm system and replacement windows.

18. 2019-08-06
    soldstatus $53,900 Sold 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Lovingly maintained, spacious 3 bedroom with 1 full bath. Clean as a pin! Detached 2 car garage, large yard, extended driveway for plenty of off street parking. Newer roof with dimensional shingles, newer furnace (2 years old). Convenient to the highway, bus stop, walk to STEM school, equipped with a security alarm system and replacement windows.

19. 2019-06-24
    listed $59,900 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Lovingly maintained, spacious 3 bedroom with 1 full bath. Clean as a pin! Detached 2 car garage, large yard, extended driveway for plenty of off street parking. Newer roof with dimensional shingles, newer furnace (2 years old). Convenient to the highway, bus stop, walk to STEM school, equipped with a security alarm system and replacement windows.

20. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $1,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$446
• After-tax cash flow: $2,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 18,955
• Household income: $43,973
• Rent vs Own: 64.0% rent · 36.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.58%
• Current HPI: 173.4962
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+110.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $94,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-03 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $99,900 Dayton MLS
• 2019-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-06 Sold (MLS) $53,900 Dayton MLS
• 2019-08-06 Sold (MLS) $53,900 Dayton MLS
• 2019-06-24 Listed $59,900 Dayton MLS
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · -27.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.