3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,368 sqft ·
Built 2012
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,398/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$445
Tax + insurance
−$133
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$294
Net cashflow
$526/mo
Annual
$6,317/yr
Cap rate
13.73%
Cash-on-cash
26.57%
DSCR
2.18
1% rule
1.65%
Cash to close
$23,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: John Will Elementary School (math 4% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 627 statewide, top 85%, 509 students, 89% FRL); Mattie T Blount High School (math 2% / reading 3%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,176 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 67% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $61k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-645MCWB5NY2Z62
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29