320 Barlow Rd

Williamsburg, VA 23188

$140,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 751 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $371/mo
• Annual: $4,454/yr
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waller Mill Elementary (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #37 of 1,108 statewide, top 4%, 364 students, 44% FRL); Queens Lake Middle (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Bruton High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 711 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 15% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.