320 Barlow Rd · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Privacy
• Room to grow

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• RANCH HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PRIVACY
• ROOM TO GROW
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.00 acre lot (100' front, 435' depth)
• HOA & community: No HOA (fees listed as 0)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Detached ranch home; Single-story (1 story); Crawl space foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum exterior; Composite roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Composite roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom with full bathroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor; Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waller Mill Elementary (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #37 of 1,108 statewide, top 4%, 364 students, 44% FRL); Bruton High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 711 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 15% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $176
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $27,438
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $411	+0% $371	+5% $332	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $247	-5% $309	+0% $371	+5% $433	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $407	base $371	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $140,000 Under Contract 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-22
   listed $140,000 Active
10. 2022-12-22
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

11. 2022-12-21
    historical
12. 2022-12-21
    soldstatus $100,000
13. 2022-12-04
    status Under Contract
14. 2022-12-02
    price $110,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

15. 2022-12-02
    listed $110,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

16. 2022-09-30
    historical
17. 2022-09-21
    price $114,900

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

18. 2022-09-21
    listed $114,900 Active 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    HOME HAS BEEN COMPLETELY GUTTED - ALL SHEETROCK, APPLIANCES, KITCHEN CABINETS, BATHROOM FIXTURES, HEATING, AIR AND WATER HEATER HAVE BEEN REMOVED - THIS IS A SHELL - IT SITS ON ONE ACRE - SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS NO WARRANTIES ON WELL AND SEPTIC WILL CONVEY

19. 2022-08-19
    price $119,900
20. 2022-07-08
    price $125,000
21. 2022-06-24
    listed $149,900 Active
22. 2020-11-17
    status Under Contract
23. 2020-11-14
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$550
• After-tax cash flow: $3,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $140,000 REINMLS
• 2022-12-22 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-12-21 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2022-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-04 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-12-02 Price Changed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-12-02 Listed $110,000 REINMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $114,900 REINMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed $114,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-08-19 Price Changed $119,900 REINMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $125,000 REINMLS
• 2022-06-24 Listed $149,900 REINMLS
• 2020-11-17 Pending — REINMLS
• 2020-11-14 Listed $50,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.