3825 Valley Blvd #46

Pomona, CA 91789

$69,888B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $989/mo
• Annual: $11,869/yr
• Cap rate: 23.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.66%
• DSCR: 3.70
• 1% rule: 2.67%
• Cash to close: $19,569

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#676 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Pomona Unified (suburban): math 12% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #444 of 517 in CA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kellogg Polytechnic Elementary (430 students, 92% FRL); Marshall Middle (440 students, 97% FRL); Ganesha High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 936 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 73% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pomona Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 2.6% in Pomona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.