3800 Saxon Dr Unit 19B

New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169

$279,999D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 838 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 445 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$893
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-591/mo
• Annual: $-7,089/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 223 students, 36% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 706 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $280k implies a 428% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.9% in New Smyrna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.