3800 Saxon Dr Unit 19B · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169

$294,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 838 sqft · Condo · 353 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $352/sqft · 22% below area Est $380k · 22% under $400/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live where beach days and river sunsets are part of the routine. This beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath ground-floor condo sits minutes from the Atlantic shoreline and the calm Indian River—prime territory for morning walks, kayak launches, and evening waterfront dinners. Inside, the kitchen steals the show with crisp white Shaker cabinetry, quartz countertops, a designer tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. The two bedrooms are nicely sized; the primary features a walk-in closet and an upgraded private half bath, while the full hall bath is also beautifully updated with a shower/tub combo. The second bedroom is generously sized—ideal for guests, a home office, or both. An open-concept living and dining area flows to a screened back porch—complete with bonus storage—for coffee at sunrise or a quiet wind-down after the pool. All furniture conveys (wall art and personal items excluded), making move-in effortless. Community perks include a sparkling pool and outdoor BBQ area for easy entertaining. With New Smyrna Beach's galleries, boutiques, and waterfront restaurants just moments away, this turnkey retreat delivers laid-back coastal living whether you're weekending or settling in full-time.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Ground-floor condo

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR CONDO
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-965 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.8% in New Smyrna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 223 students, 36% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $295k implies a 457% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,335 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,000
• List price: $294,999
• Delta: -22.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3405 S Atlantic Ave #501	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-8%)	0mo	$300,000	$391	59
4175 S Atlantic Ave #5270	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	766 (-9%)	0mo	$380,000	$496	51
4151 S Atlantic Ave #511	0.48mi	2/2.0	977 (+17%)	0mo	$475,000	$486	51
4175 S Atlantic Ave #509	0.61mi	1/1.0 (-1)	766 (-9%)	0mo	$310,000	$405	50
4405 Sea Mist Dr #218	1.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	891 (+6%)	0mo	$235,000	$264	47
4313 Sea Mist Dr #260	0.83mi	2/2.0	1,028 (+23%)	0mo	$415,000	$404	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-103,367
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-143,941
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 4 under contract
• Median asking: $489,900 ($501/sqft)
• Median days on market: 350 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32169

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $155,335

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-761	-5% $-863	+0% $-965	+5% $-1,067	+10% $-1,169
Rent	-10% $-1,155	-5% $-1,060	+0% $-965	+5% $-870	+10% $-775
Rate	-1.0pp $-817	-0.5pp $-890	base $-965	+0.5pp $-1,042	+1.0pp $-1,119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	838	$2,100	$2.51	72d	1	0.04mi
3800 Saxon Dr Unit 1545928P New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	893	$2,185	$2.45	63d	1	0.04mi
3307 Saxon Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	854	$1,975	$2.31	72d	1	0.29mi
834 E 25th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,600	$2.58	41d	1	0.34mi
834 E 25th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1007	$2,600	$2.58	63d	1	0.34mi
3801 S Atlantic Ave Unit 107 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$6,000	$6.58	72d	1	0.34mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	72d	1	0.58mi
4175 S Atlantic Ave #3160 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	788	$3,000	$3.81	72d	1	0.58mi
906 11th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,500	$3.50	72d	1	1.20mi
814 E 10th Ave New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$2,600	$2.68	72d	1	1.23mi
4501 S Atlantic Ave #513 New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	41d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail $400/mo · $4,800/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $294,999 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $294,999 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $294,999 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $294,999 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $294,999 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $294,999 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $294,999 Active 345 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $294,999 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $294,999 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $294,999 Active 340 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    pricedays on market $294,999 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 337 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 336 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 335 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 330 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 329 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 328 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 327 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 326 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 325 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 324 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 323 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 321 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 320 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 319 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 317 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 315 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 314 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 313 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 312 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 311 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 310 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 308 DOM
35. 2026-06-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 306 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 305 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 302 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 301 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 300 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 299 DOM
41. 2026-06-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 297 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 294 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 293 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 292 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 291 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 288 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 287 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 286 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 285 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 284 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$6,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$16,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,190–$12,570 screening

This beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath ground-floor condo is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. The property offers a great location and has the potential for significant value increases with some cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑
• Both Reorganizing furniture in living room — Creates a more open and functional living space ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Coronado Beach Elementary School A- FL #288/2,144 Nat'l #2,792/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,192
• Household income: $110,968
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -297.06%
• Current HPI: 345.3555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+444.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $299,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $310,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $315,000 Daytona MLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $325,000 Daytona MLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $335,000 Daytona MLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $322,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $349,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-31 Sold (MLS) $53,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-31 Sold (MLS) $53,000 NSBMLS
• 1999-08-26 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-26 Listed $54,900 NSBMLS