22216 Parrotts Fry #13

Columbia, CA 95370

$15,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1962 · Manufactured · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $1,254/mo
• Annual: $15,051/yr
• Cap rate: 106.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 358.36%
• DSCR: 16.94
• 1% rule: 11.33%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #943 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 437 students, 55% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.