22216 Parrotts Fry #13 · Columbia, CA 95370

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $22k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Vintage Mobile Home in 55+ Community Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 1 bed, 1 bath vintage mobile home located in a peaceful senior park. Enjoy fresh interior and exterior paint and stylish luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Nestled in a beautifully landscaped, walkable community, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Ideally situated between downtown Sonora and historic Columbia, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions.

Key facts

• Close to post office
• Built 1962
• Listed 94 days

Tags

• WASHER AND DRYER ON SITE
• CLOSE TO POST OFFICE
• NEAR EVERYDAY CONVENIENCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Gold Rush Mobile Home Park; Senior community; Community laundry available

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Private water source
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-wide body type
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Exterior storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 3
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating via fireplace(s); Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Main entry at street level; Free-standing fireplace; Storage area (exterior storage)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in park

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 106.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 358.36%
• DSCR: 16.94
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $21,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22217 Parrotts Ferry Rd #35 #35	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	6mo	$19,000	$18	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.45×
• Total profit: $77,470
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 41.57×
• Total profit: $170,390
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $46/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $1,254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $112

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,263	-5% $1,258	+0% $1,254	+5% $1,250	+10% $1,246
Rent	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,187	+0% $1,254	+5% $1,321	+10% $1,389
Rate	-1.0pp $1,262	-0.5pp $1,258	base $1,254	+0.5pp $1,250	+1.0pp $1,246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $15,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $15,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $15,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 72 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    status Active
20. 2026-04-23
    status Pending
21. 2026-03-12
    price $15,000
22. 2026-02-20
    listed $19,500 Active
23. 2025-07-02
    soldstatus $15,000 Closed 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Charming Vintage Mobile Home in 55+ Community Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 1 bed, 1 bath vintage mobile home located in a peaceful senior park. Enjoy fresh interior and exterior paint and stylish luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Nestled in a beautifully landscaped, walkable community, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Ideally situated between downtown Sonora and historic Columbia, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions.

24. 2025-06-17
    status Pending 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Charming Vintage Mobile Home in 55+ Community Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 1 bed, 1 bath vintage mobile home located in a peaceful senior park. Enjoy fresh interior and exterior paint and stylish luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Nestled in a beautifully landscaped, walkable community, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Ideally situated between downtown Sonora and historic Columbia, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions.

25. 2025-05-31
    price $18,500 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Charming Vintage Mobile Home in 55+ Community Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 1 bed, 1 bath vintage mobile home located in a peaceful senior park. Enjoy fresh interior and exterior paint and stylish luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Nestled in a beautifully landscaped, walkable community, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Ideally situated between downtown Sonora and historic Columbia, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions.

26. 2025-04-21
    listed $22,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Charming Vintage Mobile Home in 55+ Community Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 1 bed, 1 bath vintage mobile home located in a peaceful senior park. Enjoy fresh interior and exterior paint and stylish luxury vinyl flooring throughout. Nestled in a beautifully landscaped, walkable community, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Ideally situated between downtown Sonora and historic Columbia, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions.

27. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus $11,500 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to Gold Rush Mobile Home Park, a quiet rent controlled Senior Park. Your 1962 Belvedere is a trip in the time machine. Bring your creativity and make it your private hide away. New carpet. New kitchen stove. Loads of built in cabinets. Conveniently located near fishing, flying and the Farmery (Market). Walk to the fascinating historic Columbia State Park. Storage and RV/Boat parking in storage lot available for rent. Coin laundry and clothes lines available on the campus.

28. 2018-07-23
    listed $14,990 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to Gold Rush Mobile Home Park, a quiet rent controlled Senior Park. Your 1962 Belvedere is a trip in the time machine. Bring your creativity and make it your private hide away. New carpet. New kitchen stove. Loads of built in cabinets. Conveniently located near fishing, flying and the Farmery (Market). Walk to the fascinating historic Columbia State Park. Storage and RV/Boat parking in storage lot available for rent. Coin laundry and clothes lines available on the campus.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $46 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $114 · $10/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 146.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$46
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $15,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,777
• After-tax cash flow: $11,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Union
• NCES district ID: 0609480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 22.83/100
• National rank: #8013
• State rank: #383 of 517 in CA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #25332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $15,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $19,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-02 Sold (MLS) $15,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-17 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $18,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-21 Listed $22,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) $11,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-07-23 Listed $14,990 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $46 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.