307 Wagner St

Washington, IL 61571

$125,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $779/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($779/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#272 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• District 50 Schools (suburban): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #553 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J L Hensey Elem School (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 265 students, 0% FRL); Beverly Manor Elementary School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #574 of 665 statewide, top 87%, 340 students, 0% FRL); Washington Comm High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 693 statewide, top 12%, 1,484 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 77 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tazewell County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $125k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.