12846 Laurel Way

Drum Point, MD 20657

$390,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$455
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,417/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (38.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $240k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dowell Elementary (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #433 of 860 statewide, top 51%, 585 students, 42% FRL); Mill Creek Middle (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #108 of 225 statewide, top 50%, 446 students, 42% FRL); Patuxent High (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #53 of 222 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 19% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $264k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.