12846 Laurel Way · Drum Point, MD 20657

$390,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1992 0.69 ac lot Est $355k · 10% over $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

Key facts

• Remodeled basement
• New paved driveway
• Front porch replaced

Tags

• REMODELED BASEMENT
• LARGE FENCED IN BACK YARD
• NEW PAVED DRIVEWAY
• ROOF ONLY 10 YEARS OLD
• HVAC RECENTLY SERVICED
• FRONT PORCH REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Patuxent High (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #53 of 222 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+33 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Calvert County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $264k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,253 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
356 Clubhouse	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,344 (+4%)	4mo	$330,000	$246	62
12948 Huron Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (+3%)	6mo	$359,900	$272	55
318 Longhorn Cir	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,187 (-8%)	17mo	$335,000	$282	52
460 Deer Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	7mo	$388,000	$277	51
420 Council Bluffs Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	3mo	$337,000	$270	50
1286 Golden West Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,236 (-4%)	9mo	$499,900	$404	46
12948 Walsh Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-5%)	7mo	$315,000	$258	45
12940 Huron Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	10mo	$353,500	$245	43
340 Cayuse Cir	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,104 (-14%)	9mo	$305,000	$276	42
12987 Holly Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+9%)	3mo	$405,000	$288	39
12954 Barreda Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,148 (-11%)	11mo	$331,000	$288	37
12820 Lake View Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+13%)	20mo	$377,000	$258	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-102,634
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-140,359
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20657

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,508/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,185

Max offer price $280,820

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-508	+0% $-618	+5% $-728	+10% $-839
Rent	-10% $-808	-5% $-713	+0% $-618	+5% $-523	+10% $-428
Rate	-1.0pp $-422	-0.5pp $-519	base $-618	+0.5pp $-719	+1.0pp $-822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12904 Huron Dr Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,950	$1.89	3d	1	0.36mi
12627 Hilltop Rd Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,400	$2.17	18d	1	0.76mi
12433 Cree Ln Lusby, MD	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	1.00mi
12443 San Jose Ln Lusby, MD	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,350	$2.02	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   price $390,000
3. 2026-02-10
   listed $380,000 Active
4. 2019-07-22
   soldstatus $263,500
5. 2019-07-17
   soldstatus $263,500 Closed 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

6. 2019-07-10
   status Pending 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

7. 2019-06-12
   historical Active Under Contract 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

8. 2019-05-17
   price $267,400 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

9. 2019-03-29
   price $269,900 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

10. 2019-03-05
    listed $279,900 Active 1181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! $5,000.00 of Buyer's Closing Costs paid by the Seller with acceptable terms. A super value in Drum Point is available now, and ready for your finishes. The value for the square footage and features is outstanding, the roof is just 2 years old. This large rambler on full finished basement is tucked away, includes 4 BR/3BA, a brick fireplace in the rec room, Andersen windows, a great work shop/hobby space area in the basement, incredible fenced yard and access to Lake Charming. Enjoy beautiful Brazilian cherry floors and vaulted ceilings upon entry. New carpet in bedrooms, Dura-ceramic flooring in the kitchen. Huge outdoor living space includes large decking area for multiple tables or seating areas, storage shed, play area. The garage is an over-sized 24'x 24' 2 car space with workbench. Garage connected to the side and rear yard both. Pool table in basement conveys. The house is being sold with a few cosmetic updates needed. Water treatment system conveys AS IS-not operable. One year home warranty (2-10 brand) is included in the price! Community beaches, boat ramp on Mill Creek, excellent 'walkability' in Drum Point community for a great lifestyle.

11. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus $222,500
12. 1991-08-26
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$371/yr (+$31/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,508
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$14,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,510
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Drum Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #14756

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drum Point, MD
• County: Calvert County · 33,451 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,699
• Household income: $115,748
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 274.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+225.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $390,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $380,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $263,500 Public Records
• 2019-07-17 Sold (MLS) $263,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-17 Price Changed $267,400 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-29 Price Changed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-05 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 1991-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,508 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.