69 Jerry Dr

Scottsbluff, NE 69361

$20,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $658/mo
• Annual: $7,899/yr
• Cap rate: 45.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.05%
• DSCR: 7.28
• 1% rule: 4.96%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($993 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#127 in NE, #4,862 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities D-.
• Scottsbluff Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #89 of 111 in NE (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Scotts Bluff County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scotts Bluff County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $20k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 45.8% vs local median 3.1% in Scottsbluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.