69 Jerry Dr · Scottsbluff, NE 69361

$20,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1975

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1975
• Listed 153 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($993 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.8% vs local median 3.1% in Scottsbluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#127 in NE, #4,862 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities D-.
• Scottsbluff Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #89 of 111 in NE (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Scotts Bluff County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scotts Bluff County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $20k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $17,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.05%
• DSCR: 7.28
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $38,690
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.66×
• Total profit: $87,704
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69361

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $152/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $159

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $20,000 Active
16. 1997-05-19
    soldstatus $6,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $152 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 127.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$152
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$953
• − Management: −$953
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $8,051
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $5,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsbluff Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3176470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,931
• Composite: 36.14/100
• National rank: #4745
• State rank: #89 of 111 in NE

Livability — Scottsbluff

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4862

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsbluff, NE
• Population (ZIP): 16,965

Population outlook (Scotts Bluff County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,740 people
• By 2030: 35,229 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,160 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 33,656 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 35,257 · -1.4%
• By 2100: 39,158 · +9.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotts Bluff

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.6% · R 73.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+48.9 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.96%
• Current HPI: 169.5952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+217.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $20,000 WNBOR
• 1997-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $6,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $152 · +710.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.