161 State St Unit A

Mobile, AL 36603

$199,900D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,155 sqft · Built 1830 · Condo · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$760
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-1,003/mo
• Annual: $-12,041/yr
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.37%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (72.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (72.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Florence Howard Elementary School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 488 students, 94% FRL); Calloway Smith Middle School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #235 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 396 students, 96% FRL); Ben C Rain High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 589 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 67% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent; built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 5.3% in Mobile — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,588/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($27k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 73% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?