10465 Chalk Bluff Way

Dexter, MO 63841

$187,100D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,468 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-997/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $52,388

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $187k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#221 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, employment D.
• Dexter R-XI (town): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #120 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elem. (473 students, 55% FRL); T. S. Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 36%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 48% FRL); Dexter High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 587 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Dexter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.