10465 Chalk Bluff Way · Dexter, MO 63841

$187,100

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,468 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1974 0.91 ac lot $76/sqft · 19% below area Est $230k · 19% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sitting high atop Chalk Bluff, this secluded 4 bedroom, 2 story, 2468 Sq Ft house is a nature lovers dream. The foyer is flanked on either side by a formal dining room and family room. The eat-in kitchen with pantry, stainless steel appliances, white cabinetry and computer work station opens to the den, featuring a cozy gas fireplace and built-ins. The utility room and half bath are located just inside the 2 car garage entrance. The second story is reserved for the four bedrooms, including the Master with a 3/4 bath, a hall bathroom and bonus space. A 12 x 8 utility shed stands in the shady back yard. Special amenities of the home include a whirlpool jetted tub, two central air units, modern lighting, ceiling fans, plantation shutters, ceramic tile and updated wood laminate floors throughout. As the only house on Chalk Bluff Way, this house offers the ultimate in privacy, yet is located minutes from both Highway 25 and Highway AF. Put this one at the top of your must see list!

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 220-volt electric; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Nearly 1-acre lot with many trees; Lot dimensions approximately 197 x 201

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room with fireplace (family room fireplace); Family room; Total of 10 principal rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Dexter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#221 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, employment D.
• Dexter R-XI (town): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #120 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elem. (473 students, 55% FRL); T. S. Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 36%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 48% FRL); Dexter High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 587 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,903 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,238
• List price: $187,100
• Delta: -18.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,665
• Equity at exit: $27,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,089
• Equity at exit: $16,177

Cash invested: $52,388 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63841

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,361/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $172,417

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-30	+0% $-83	+5% $-136	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-138	+0% $-83	+5% $-29	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-36	base $-83	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,775
• Closing costs: $5,613
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $187,100 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,100 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,100 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,100 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,100 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,100 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,100 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,100 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $187,100 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $187,100 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $187,100 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,100 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,100 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $187,100 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,100 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,100 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,100 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $187,100 Active 120-char remark
19. 2025-03-11
    historical
20. 2025-01-16
    price $220,000
21. 2024-09-12
    listed $229,000 Active
22. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus
23. 2020-10-05
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (998 chars)

    Sitting high atop Chalk Bluff, this secluded 4 bedroom, 2 story, 2468 Sq Ft house is a nature lovers dream. The foyer is flanked on either side by a formal dining room and family room. The eat-in kitchen with pantry, stainless steel appliances, white cabinetry and computer work station opens to the den, featuring a cozy gas fireplace and built-ins. The utility room and half bath are located just inside the 2 car garage entrance. The second story is reserved for the four bedrooms, including the Master with a 3/4 bath, a hall bathroom and bonus space. A 12 x 8 utility shed stands in the shady back yard. Special amenities of the home include a whirlpool jetted tub, two central air units, modern lighting, ceiling fans, plantation shutters, ceramic tile and updated wood laminate floors throughout. As the only house on Chalk Bluff Way, this house offers the ultimate in privacy, yet is located minutes from both Highway 25 and Highway AF. Put this one at the top of your must see list!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,361
• − Insurance: −$936
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$5,443
• Taxable loss: −$4,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dexter R-XI
• NCES district ID: 2910770
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,349
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4846
• State rank: #120 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #10879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,319

Population outlook (Stoddard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,096 people
• By 2030: 28,478 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 27,073 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 25,512 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 21,740 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stoddard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.8pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.0 2016: R+69.3 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+39.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.94%
• Current HPI: 145.4225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $187,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $220,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-12 Listed $229,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,361 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.